美元、黃金、美債與 AI 投資：由「實質利率 × 期限溢酬 × 投資週期」共同指揮Dollar, Gold, Treasuries & AI Capex: A Market Conducted by Real Yields × Term Premium × the Investment Cycle

摘要｜TL;DR（中）：降息路徑「更平、更晚」，實質利率偏高、期限溢酬上行——長天期美債與黃金承壓、美元偏有撐；若 AI 資本開支持續強勁、服務業維持擴張，利率下不快、股市不必然轉空但估值上行受限。TL;DR (EN): With a flatter, later cutting path, high real yields and rising term premium pressure long-duration Treasuries and gold while supporting the USD. If AI capex stays strong and services expand, rates won’t fall quickly; equities need not turn bearish, but multiple expansion is capped.

1) 「美元基準地位」並未被取代

中： 全球資產折現與風險定價仍以美國 10 年期公債殖利率為核心錨；所謂「美元計價的中國 10 年期國債」只是相對價值的比較標的，不是新的全球基準。EN: The U.S. 10Y Treasury remains the world’s de-facto risk-free benchmark. USD-denominated Chinese 10Y is a relative-value reference, not a new global anchor.

2) 為何 10 年期美債殖利率「上衝」？

中： 不是一句話能解釋，而是政策訊號（降息不急）× 通膨預期黏性 × 供給與期限溢酬回升 × 資金面/買盤結構的疊加。EN: It’s a mix of later/flatter cuts, sticky inflation expectations, higher supply and term premium, and funding/buy-side rotation—not a single headline.

3) 這對黃金、債市、美元意味什麼？

中： 在此組合下，長天期美債與黃金偏承壓、美元偏有撐。真正反轉通常要看到：實質利率回落、期限溢酬降溫，或寬鬆時點明顯前移。EN: In this regime, long-duration Treasuries and gold face pressure, while the USD stays supported. A durable turn typically needs: real yields rolling over, term premium cooling, or a meaningful pull-forward of easing.

4) ISM 服務業回到擴張：避開「立即衰退」，但非全面無憂

中： 服務業 PMI >50 多半對應經濟擴張；這次回升屬「偏正面訊號」。但就業分項偏弱、價格分項偏高，意味不急著降息、利率上緣仍在，股市偏多但估值彈性受限。EN: Services ISM back above 50 signals expansion risk is lower. Yet sub-indices show soft employment and elevated prices, implying no rush to cut and a cap on multiple expansion—constructive for risk, but not runaway bullish.

5) 為何這輪美國「不易衰退」？——投資，而非只靠消費

中： 這波韌性更多來自投資拉動：AI 資本開支驅動資料中心、電力/變電、散熱、晶片與上游原物料（如銅）的多層擴張；只要 capex 熱度不退，景氣就有底，但利率下不快。EN: Resilience is capex-led. AI-driven spending is scaling data centers, power and grid, thermal, semis, and upstream copper. As long as capex holds, growth has a floor—but rates won’t fall quickly.

一句話總結

中： 這一輪不是典型「消費撐場」而是「投資扛起」的韌性週期；在實質利率高、期限溢酬上行與AI capex 強勁的組合下，長債與黃金短線不易占優、美元有撐、股市不必然見頂但估值受限。EN: This cycle is resilience by investment, not consumption. With high real yields, rising term premium, and strong AI capex, long-duration bonds and gold struggle near-term, USD stays supported, and equities aren’t forced to top—but valuation upside is limited.