「美元爆衝，風險資產泡沫警報！」“Dollar Rockets, Risk Asset Bubble Warning!

1️⃣ 美元技術面突破美元指數已連續三天上漲，且均站上季線。短線美元走弱的利空已出盡，市場重新確認美元的支撐力量。Dollar Technical BreakthroughThe U.S. dollar index has risen for three consecutive days, staying above the quarterly moving average. Short-term downside pressure appears exhausted, and the market is reaffirming support for the dollar.

2️⃣ 突破氣勢明顯增強此次美元突破季線的三根K線，相比上一次突破季線的K線，氣勢更強，顯示市場對美元回流的信心與動能集中。Stronger MomentumCompared to the previous breakout, the three candlesticks breaking above the quarterly moving average show stronger momentum, indicating concentrated market confidence in dollar inflows.

3️⃣ 資產價格矛盾的底層邏輯股市（風險性資產）與黃金（避險性資產）同步上漲，不僅受到FED預防式降息推動，更深層邏輯在於世界央行調整美元與美債儲備比例，這也解釋了近期美元與美債表現不佳的原因。Underlying Logic Behind Asset Price ContradictionThe simultaneous rise of equities (risk assets) and gold (safe-haven assets) is not only driven by the Fed’s preventive rate cuts but also by global central banks’ adjustments in dollar and U.S. Treasury reserve ratios. This explains the recent underperformance of both the dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

4️⃣ 市場泡沫與風險意識FED主席已直言美股估值偏高，股市與景氣顯著背離。市場意識到目前風險性資產存在泡沫，正等待破裂時點。美元指數強彈，可能是這一訊號的初步反映。Market Bubble and Risk AwarenessThe Fed chair has noted that U.S. stock valuations are high and diverging from economic fundamentals. The market recognizes the bubble in risk assets and is waiting for a potential correction. The dollar’s surge may be an early signal.

5️⃣ 日圓與底層資產支撐廉價的日圓，風險性資產得以支撐，但日本人民因廉價日圓承受高通膨壓力，加之種種事件，執政黨選舉大敗，民意低落。「日圓貶值拯救經濟」的政策，可能面臨調整，將改變資金流動與市場底層規則。Yen and Structural Support for Risk Assets, risk assets were supported. However, Japanese citizens are suffering from high inflation caused by a weak yen, and government approval is low. Policies relying on yen depreciation to boost the economy may be adjusted, altering capital flows and market fundamentals.

6️⃣ 結論：保持謹慎綜合以上，對風險性資產應保持更謹慎態度。Conclusion: Maintain CautionOverall, a cautious stance toward risk assets is advised.

7️⃣ 後續可能情境

• A. 美元回弱：跌回季線，風險性資產行情延續。

• B. 美元轉強勢：流動性壓力湧現，風險性資產被拋售，價格下調。Possible Scenarios

• A. Dollar Weakens: Falls back below the quarterly MA, risk assets continue to thrive.

• B. Dollar Strengthens: Liquidity pressure emerges, risk assets are sold off, and prices decline.