美元止跌回穩，美股未必見頂：真正的拐點，可能要等「黑天鵝＋瘋狂降息」Dollar stabilizes; U.S. equities not necessarily peaking—true inflection may need a “black swan + rapid cuts.”

導言｜Intro過去數月，美元指數一路走弱；但自 10 月後，美元由弱轉穩、甚至偏強，背後不是單一因素，而是多條力量疊加。After months of weakness, the dollar stabilized since October—tilting stronger—not from a single trigger but overlapping forces.

一、美元此前走弱的三股力量

1.供應鏈再定序令美元與美債長期持倉分散

2.美債供給與利息成本上升，引發「減債增金」

3.市場押注衰退與降息。

Three drivers: supply-chain re-ordering diversified away from USD/Treasuries; heavier Treasury supply and interest burden pushed “sell bonds, buy gold”; broad bets on recession and rate cuts.

二、為何 10 月後見底回穩？

上述三因子並未如預期劇烈發生：貿易衝突進入「可控摩擦」，企業與市場漸進消化；拋債買金的單邊擁擠度下降；衰退與降息時點被往後移。These forces failed to intensify: trade tensions shifted into “manageable friction”; the one-way “sell Treasuries, buy gold” trade unwound; recession and cuts were pushed out.

三、影子銀行→信用偏緊→美元需求上升私募信貸、SPV 對商業銀行的連鎖壓力令資金面偏緊，短端融資利率與實質利率居高，美元獲得底部支撐。

Private-credit/SPV links tightened bank funding; front-end and real yields stayed elevated, giving the dollar a floor.

四、資產同場景：長端債回檔更深、黃金高位洗牌期限溢酬抬頭與買方結構空窗，使長端美債回檔重於短端（熊陡）；黃金在高位洗牌，待資金面緩和與實質利率回落後才更佔優。

With higher term premium and buyer gaps, long-duration Treasuries underperform bills (bear steepening); gold is being cleansed until funding eases and real yields roll over.

五、結論：美元先強後穩；股市未必立刻轉頭美元自底部反彈合理；在「衰退未明、降息未前移」前，美股未必立刻見頂。真正的反轉，多出現在黑天鵝迫使聯準會快速降息與擴表之時。A bottoming rebound in USD is reasonable; until recession is clear and cuts are brought forward, equities need not top. The true reversal often comes when a black swan forces rapid cuts and larger liquidity.

六、投資人備忘（非投資建議）三鍵快掃：①錢市壓力（SOFR/回購）回落；②10Y 實質利率下彎 25–30 bps；③降息路徑前移。三鍵同亮→長債與黃金勝率高；未到位→美元偏強、股市可能續撐。Three-key checklist: (1) money-market pressures ease; (2) 10Y real yield rolls down 25–30 bps; (3) cut path shifts earlier. When all align, bonds and gold gain odds; before that, USD stays supported and equities may levitate.